Speaker

September 14

Victor Agadjanian
School of Social and Family Dynamics, founding Director of CePoD

Migration, HIV, and Demographic Change in Rural Africa

October 12

Sarah Hayford,
School of Social and Family Dynamics

The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945-2002.

November 2

Talk at noon in Coor 5536

Ron Rindfuss,
Research Professor, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, and Senior-Fellow, East-West Center

Why Tourists Ought to be within the Demographic Purview

November 30

Hilda Garcia-Perez,
School of Transborder Studies

Reproductive health services, agency and empowerment among immigrants women in the U.S.-Mexico border

Speaker

January 13

TO BE HELD AT 11:00 in
SS 109

Roberto Gonzales
School of Social Service Administration, University of Chicago

Learning to be Illegal: Undocumented Youth and the Confusing and Contradictory Routes to Adulthood

The recent reintroduction of the DREAM (Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors) Act in the 112th Congress has once again raised awareness of the untenable situation facing more than 2.1 million undocumented immigrant children and young adults who have lived in the U.S. since childhood. Each year, tens of thousands of undocumented youngsters leave American high schools to embark upon uncertain futures. But until now, very little has been known about the ways in which these young people come of age and how legal barriers shape their adolescent and adult trajectories. This presentation will examine the critical transition to adulthood among undocumented 1.5 generation young adults (i.e., those who immigrated to the U.S early in life). Drawing from four and one half years of fieldwork and 150 life history interviews with 20-34 year old undocumented young adults living in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Professor Gonzales finds that conflicting and contradictory laws move undocumented youth from experiences of belonging and inclusion to rejection and exclusion. “Learning to be illegal” tremendously impacts these young people’s coming of age, identity formation, friendship patterns, aspirations and expectations. While these transitions differently impact undocumented college goers and those who exit the school system early, by their mid-twenties, the overwhelming majority has very few legal options.

January 27

Graeme Hugo
Geography, Environment and Population, University of Adelaide

Climate Change and Population Mobility in Southeast Asia

The talk will focus on the Southeast Asian region to examine the potential effects that climate change is likely to have on internal and international migration in the region.  This is done by selecting a number of case studies which represent four main types of hot spot areas.  In each area the current patterns of internal and international migration are examined.  Future migration scenarios, as a result of climate change, are then developed.

February 3

Jennifer Johnson-Hanks
Demography, University of California-Berkeley

Aggregation Problems

Social science relies heavily on aggregation, that is, on moving from individual cases or instances to higher-order categories. This chapter begins by arguing that how we aggregate matters: there are basic theoretical claims embedded in how we make up the aggregates that we study. Using three examples, the chapter then shows that many important phenomena look radically different at different levels of aggregation. Aggregates have certain characteristics that are apply only at that aggregate level, and that cannot be reduced to the characteristics of the constituent parts. Other times, the apparent characteristics of the aggregate are artifacts of a bad process of aggregation — that is, what look like relationships are not in fact relationships at all. There is considerable variation in how relationships at the micro level are reflected at the macro, and vice versa. Finally, the chapter seeks to show that this variation is systematic and meaningful. That is, when we know something about the causal processes behind the variables that interest us, we can predict what kinds of macro-micro patterns will emerge as we move across levels of aggregation.

February 17

Jacob Young
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, ASU

Life-Course Trajectories and Peer Friendships: A Test of Moffitt's Mimicry Hypothesis

Moffitt's (1993) Dual-Taxonomy theory has been among the most researched theories of crime and delinquency in recent years. A variety of evidence has supported the argument that life-course persistent youth have tenuous relationships with peers during early-life. However, few studies have examined the hypothesized social network relationships of troubled youth during adolescence. This study improves upon the current literature by focusing on the role of peer relationships for life-course persistent youth using group based trajectory modeling and examining global network properties using exponential random graph models. Using data from four waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, my findings suggest that life-course persistent youth do not become popular during adolescence as predicted by Moffitt's theory. Specifically, being a member of the life-course persistent group does not lead to more friends nor is the taxonomic classicfication of respondents a salient characteristic of peer groups within the AddHealth data.

February 24

David Shapiro
Economics, Penn State University

Enduring Economic Hardship, Women’s Education, and Fertility in urban Africa

This talk examines fertility transition in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and second-largest city in sub-Saharan Africa.  Shapiro (1996) documented the onset of fertility transition in the city, using data from 1990.  Women’s education was strongly inversely related to fertility, beginning with secondary schooling, and increases in women’s education were important in initiating fertility transition in the city.  This paper uses data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC to examine fertility in Kinshasa and assess fertility transition since 1990, a period characterized by severe adverse economic conditions in the DRC.  We find that fertility transition has continued at a strong pace.  In part this reflects increased educational attainment of women, but it appears also to be a consequence of enduring economic hardship.  The ongoing fertility decline has been accompanied by delays in entry to marriage and childbearing, likely reflecting adverse economic conditions.

March 2

Steven Goodreau
Anthropology, University of Washington

HIV Transmission among Men who have Sex with Men in the United States and Peru: Insights from Dynamic Demographic Network Models

March 9

Jointly sponsored by the School of Human Evolution and Social Change

Thomas McDade
Anthropology, Northwestern University

Conceptual and methodological tools for a new human population biology: Inflammation as exemplar

Contextual factors are powerful determinants of human physiological function and health across the life course. Increasingly, social scientists are incorporating biological measures into community- or population-based studies of the social determinants of health. This presentation discusses recent advances in, and applications of, methodological tools for "getting under the skin," and proposes conceptual tools for advancing population-based biosocial research. Findings from a series of community-based studies on inflammation are used to illustrate the value of an integrative, comparative human population biology.

March 30

Eileen Diaz McConnell
School of Transborder Studies, ASU

House Poor in Los Angeles: Examining Patterns of Housing-Induced Poverty by Race, Nativity, and Legal Status

Housing affordability in the United States is typically measured using the ratio approach of housing costs to income, with those allocating more than thirty percent of income to shelter costs considered to have housing affordability challenges. Although this standard is influential in housing affordability research and policy, the thirty percent cutoff is arbitrary and does not accurately represent whether households can afford other goods and services after paying for housing. Consequently, scholars have developed alternative standards based on residual income, whether income remaining after housing costs is sufficient to meet non-housing needs. This study employs data from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey to consider racial/ethnic, nativity and legal status differences in one residual income standard, housing-induced poverty. The regression analyses identify baseline and residual differences in the incidence of housing-induced poverty among five groups: U.S. born Latinos, Whites, and African Americans, authorized Latino immigrants, and unauthorized Latino immigrants. The fully specified results suggest that U.S. born Latinos are particularly disadvantaged relative to other groups, controlling for an extensive set of covariates. Implications of the study for Latino mobility, the operationalization of housing affordability, and housing policy will be discussed.

APRIL 6
(NOTE NEW DATE)

Tom Rex
W.P. Carey School of Business, ASU

Uses of Decennial Census and American Community Survey Data -- and Pitfalls of Using the ACS

April 13

PAA Practice Talks

April 27

TO BE HELD AT 11:00 in
SS 109

Nathan Martin
School of Social Transformation, ASU

Speaker

September 9

PAA Abstract Session

September 23

Sarah Hayford - School of Social and Family Dynamics, ASU

Measuring Fertility Motivations: A Case Study from Southern Mozambique

ABSTRACT: Continued low rates of contraceptive usage in sub-Saharan Africa have been investigated in terms of factors related to contraceptive supply and in terms of individual and family characteristics associated with lower or higher use. This analysis extends previous research on the determinants of contraceptive use by analyzing contraceptive use as a product of women’s motivation to limit fertility. We use unique survey data collected in rural southern Mozambique to consider the association between women’s stated reasons for limiting childbearing and the use of modern contraceptive methods. Results suggest that economic motivations to limit fertility are more strongly associated with contraceptive use than reasons driven by health concerns or desires to space children appropriately. These findings have both methodological implications for the measurement of fertility intentions as well as substantive implications for policy makers and health care providers.

October 7

Yean Ju Lee - Sociology, University of Hawai’i

The role of extended family in union formation and dissolution in Korea

The prevalence of multigenerational family households has decreased drastically in the past several decades in Korea, but ties among extended family members, especially those between adult children and their parents, continue to perform important functions for the family. This study examines the effects of parental characteristics on adult children's first marriage and its dissolution, and explores how the principles of "generation" together with gender and class affect family life outcomes in Korea. The social context and implications of the findings will be discussed.

October 21

Daniel Hruschka - School of Human Evolution and Social Change, ASU

Deprivation, Abundance and Obesity:  A critical look at current theories for the rise of obesity

In low income countries worldwide, rising standards of living have spurred an unprecedented rise in obesity.  However, in numerous wealthy countries the trend frequently reverses with poorer and less educated individuals more likely to be overweight than their wealthier compatriots.  This paradoxical pattern has spurred a number of theoretical arguments linking deprivation, abundance and obesity.   In this talk, I critically review these arguments in the light of historical and cross-national data. 

November 4

Carter Rees - School of Criminology & Criminal Justice, ASU

The Impact of Best Friend Behavioral Sequences on Delinquency During Adolescence

ABSTRACT:This analysis focuses on best friend delinquency during adolescence. Best friendships can change both in terms of making and breaking friendship ties but also in terms of best friend behavior. To this end, we focus on the possibility of fluidity of best friend delinquent behavior over two time points and how this is related to adolescent delinquency. Two research questions are addressed. Does continuous exposure to a delinquent best friend over time influence respondents the same or differently than exposure to a delinquent best friend at just one time point? Second, is the magnitude of the effect of having best friend behavior change from non-delinquent to delinquent comparable to the effect of best friend behavior change from delinquent to non-delinquent? Findings are reported from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a multi-wave nationally representative panel study of adolescents who were in grades 7-12 in 1994

November 18
LOCATION: SS109

Nicole Weller – School of Social and Family Dynamics, ASU

&

Haruna Fukui – School of Social and Family Dynamics, ASU

Social influences on health-seeking behaviors for primary versus secondary infertility

Social Capital among Older Immigrants: A Comparative Study of Two Senior Centers in Phoenix, Arizona

December 2

Jennifer Barber – Sociology, University of Michigan

Relationship Dynamics and Pregnancy: Seriousness, Instability, and Partner Change

ABSTRACT: This paper uses data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) project. Using longitudinal data from a weekly survey of 1,000 young women spanning 2.5 years (130 weeks), we examine the types of relationships that lead to pregnancy. We focus on the dynamics of these relationships, specifically examining three dimensions (time spent together, commitment, and cohabitation) during four time periods (current week, past month, entire history with current partner, and history with prior partners). Time-intensive and/or committed weeks, months, and relationships are associated with a higher pregnancy rate than other weeks, months, and relationships. In addition, having a history of committed and/or cohabiting relationships with prior partners is associated with pregnancy, net of the current relationship’s character. The first week with a new partner (but not getting back together with a prior partner) is associated with over three times higher odds of pregnancy. Further, changes in seriousness (i.e., instability) increase pregnancy risk. For example, the first week a respondent considers her relationship “committed” is associated with nearly four times higher odds of pregnancy than  relationship weeks that remain “uncommitted.” Finally, a history of instability in terms of cohabitation – moving in and out with prior partners – is associated with an increased risk of pregnancy. Overall, our analyses suggest that understanding both seriousness and instability, and particularly the ways they operate independently and in tandem, are important pieces of the puzzle of early pregnancy.

Speaker

January 21
LOCATION: SS204

February 4

February 18

February 25

March 4

March 25
9 am to
11 am

April 15

Speaker

October 8

October 22

LOCATION: GIOS L1-04

November 5
AT NOON

November 19

December 3

Speaker

February 5

Phil Morgan,
Duke University

A Half Century of Fertility Change

ABSTRACT: Fertility change has been one of the most important foci of social science over the past half-century. The body of knowledge accumulated is impressive and can account for both the decline of fertility from high to low levels (the fertility transition) and variation in fertility at both high and low levels. Explanation has been both at the level of proximate determinants and more distal causes. We review the empirical evidence on fertility change and offer integrative, conceptual observations.

March 5

Greg Duncan
University of California-Irvine

ABSTRACT: Our chapter investigates links between young children’s skills and behaviors and their later attainments. We begin with a conceptual framework for understanding the early skills. We propose and defend the early-skill trichotomy of: achievement, attention and problem behavior and mental health, while at the same time acknowledging that each of these broad categories are related, and can be broken down further into more narrowly defined component parts. The heart of our chapter is a review of associations between early achievement, attention and behavior skills and later school achievement and such late-adolescent schooling outcomes as drop-out and college attendance. We also consider early-adult criminal behavior as measured by the likelihood they have been arrested. We find that although school-entry achievement skills proved quite predictive of later school achievement, the persistence dimension of early skills and problem behaviors mattered most for later attainment and crime. Point-in-time assessments of primary school children are, at best, relatively weak predictive of where children will end up in late adolescence or early adulthood. Repeating these assessments over a number of years boosts the explanatory power of some of them considerably. Second, only early anti-social behaviors were predictive of early-adult crime. Third, none of the links between middle childhood skills and adult success were all determining. Associations between skills and outcomes were generally stronger after age 10 than before. But even when we judged persistent early skill problems to have strong effects on our outcomes, there were still many exceptions to the rule.

March 26
2:00-3:00

Gábor Csárdi, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

April 9

PAA practice talks

April 23
LOCATION: SS215

Alan Murray
Arizona State University

April 27 (TUESDAY)

Elena Zimovina, Open Society Institute Fellow

Migration in Post-Soviet Central Asia: Trends and Implications

Time: TBA
Location: Melikian Center
This talk is sponsored by the Melikian Center

Speaker

Downloads

September 11

Guang Guo, University of North Carolina

The Coexistence of Bio-Ancestrally-Rooted and Socially-Constructed Racial Identity in the Contemporary United States

Abstract (Word)

September 25

Chris Herbst, School of Public Affairs, ASU

Welfare Reform and the Subjective Well-Being of Single Mothers

Abstract (Word)

October 9

Eric Hedberg, National Opinion Research Center

Abstract (Word)

October 23

NO COLLOQUIUM

November 6

Scott Yabiku, School of Social and Family Dynamics, ASU

November 20

Doug White, University of California at Irvine

Old world synchrony and economic networks 900-1950

This talk will describe how the growth and decline of cities and the rise and fall of city-size hierarchies is related to the network structure of intercity connections.

Speaker

Downloads

January 30
AT NOON

Rob Crosnoe, University of Texas-Austin

Mexican Immigrants, Their Children, and American Schools

February 13

Kim Updegraff and Adriana Umaña-Taylor, SSFD

Structure and Process in Mexican-origin Families and their Implications for Youth Development

February 27

Steve Ruggles, University of Minnesota

Reevaluating the Northwest European Family System (ppt file)

March 20

Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Dynamics and Control Emergent and Reemergent Diseases: The Case of Tuberculosis and Nosocomial Infections

April 6 (MONDAY)

Andrew Olshan, University of North Carolina

Integrating Biomarkers in Population Research: Opportunities and Challenges

April 10
AT 4:00pm

James Fowler, University of California-San Diego

April 24

Practice talks for Population Association of America Meetings

Speaker

Downloads

Sept 12

Sept 26

Oct 10

Oct 24

Nov 14

Dec 5